Unequal Transmission: Monetary Policy and Household Consumption in India

October 15, 2025
Abstract

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on household consumption, income, and employment in a large developing economy. Using high-frequency identification of monetary surprises combined with local projection methods, we estimate dynamic impulse responses to both current and expected policy shocks. Our results indicate that a contractionary shock to the short-term policy rate raises consumption and income on impact but reduces them in the medium run, while employment declines persistently. In contrast, a contractionary shock to the expected path of future interest rates increase consumption and employment but lowers income. The effects are stronger after the first quarter, suggesting delayed transmission. We also observe heterogeneity across socio-economic groups: rural households, those with lower education, women, younger and older workers, and lower-caste groups exhibit significantly larger consumption declines. A back-of-the-envelope calculation yields a marginal propensity to consume of about 40 percent out of transitory, policyinduced income changes. Our findings highlight the importance of distributional channels in shaping the aggregate transmission of monetary policy in developing economies.

Figure 1: Time Series of Monetary Policy Shocks
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