“What Determines Household Expectations?”Authors: Aditi Singh, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL (with Anushka Mitra)
Abstract: This paper examines which macroeconomic signals shape household expectations and finds that unemployment shocks play a more influential role than inflation shocks. Using daily data, we identify which announcements prompt households to revise their expectations. Labor market news strongly influences both general economic sentiment and inflation expectations, with unemployment shocks dominating even when inflation rises and unemployment falls.
“Identifying Hand-to-Mouth Households: Evidence from India”Authors: Aditi Singh, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL (with Vivek Gupta and Fiorella Pizzolon)
Abstract: This paper investigates the prevalence and characteristics of poor and wealthy hand-to-mouth households in India. Using harmonized survey data and machine learning models, the study finds that wealthy hand-to-mouth households comprise 15–27% of the population, far exceeding poor hand-to-mouth households. Results highlight the importance of distinguishing between liquidity and net worth when evaluating consumption behavior and policy transmission.
“Show Me the Dowry: How Traditional Customs Affect Education in Rural India”Authors: Natasha Jha, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL
Abstract: This study examines the impact of stricter anti-dowry laws on educational attainment in rural India. While dowry payments declined, female education also fell, especially in communities with higher dowry prevalence. Families substituted reduced female education as a signal of adherence to tradition, revealing unintended consequences of anti-dowry legislation.
“Agriculture and Arsenic: Can Overextraction of Groundwater Make Us Sick?”Authors: Natasha Jha, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL
Abstract: This paper shows how groundwater irrigation in India contributed to arsenic contamination. Districts with richer groundwater endowments have significantly more unsafe habitats, especially where deep tubewells were adopted early. Findings highlight long-term environmental consequences of irrigation technology choices.
“Shaping Future Success: Evidence from an Early Childhood Human Capital Formation Intervention”Authors: Natasha Jha, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL (with Deepak Saraswat, Shwetlana Sabarwal, Lindsey Lacey, Nishith Prakash, and Rachel Chazan-Cohen)
Abstract: Evidence from a large-scale randomized controlled trial in Nepal shows that classroom quality improvements combined with parental engagement raised children’s developmental outcomes by 0.10–0.20 standard deviations. The helper model proved most effective, sustaining classroom quality and caregiver engagement, with the largest gains among disadvantaged households.
“Minimum Support Prices in Indian Agriculture: Supporting Whom and at What Price?”Authors: Natasha Jha, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL (with Shilpa Agarwal and Ishani Chatterjee)
Abstract: This paper finds that India’s minimum support prices are politically influenced, with higher MSPs announced in crops linked to upcoming state elections. The policy acts as a blunt instrument when other tools are unavailable, raising consumer prices and reducing welfare.
“Unequal Transmission: Monetary Policy and Household Consumption in India”Authors: Aditi Singh, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL (with Fiorella Pizzolon)
Abstract: Using high-frequency identification of monetary surprises, this paper shows that contractionary shocks have heterogeneous effects on household consumption, income, and employment. Rural households, women, and lower-caste groups experience larger declines, underscoring the importance of distributional channels in monetary policy transmission.
“Aggregate Savings in India: Where Do We Go From Here?”Authors: Aditi Singh, Assistant Professor, CAFRAL (with Prachi Mishra)
Abstract: This paper analyzes the decline in India’s savings rate since 2007. Findings suggest that increased prosperity explains much of the decline in household savings, while demographic changes offset part of the effect. Forecasts indicate a further decline in household savings as a share of GDP over the next five years.
1. "The Effects of Smartphones versus Cash on Women’s Economic Empowerment: Experimental Evidence from Malawi", Dr. Shreya Bhattacharya: Department Seminar, ISI Delhi, Nov 21
2. “Breaking Barriers to Financial Access: Cross-Platform Digital Payments and Credit Markets”, Dr. Nirupama Kulkarni: IGIDR Mumbai, Nov 19
3. "The Effects of Smartphones versus Cash on Women’s Economic Empowerment: Experimental Evidence from Malawi", Dr. Shreya Bhattacharya: Department Seminar, Ashoka University, Nov 19
4. "Financial Repression, Deposit Rate Deregulation and Bank Market Power", Dr. Nirupama Kulkarni: ISI Macro Workshop, Oct 23-24
CAFRAL organised a half-day “Virtual Conference on Draft IRAC Norms on ECL-Based Provisioning and the Standardised Approach for Credit Risk for Commercial Banks” on November 25, 2025. Shri C. Sankaranarayanan, Senior Program Director, shared an overview of the program, highlighting its objectives, structure, and the growing importance of ECL in the evolving regulatory landscape.
In his inaugural address, Shri Manas Mohanty, Additional Director, underscored the need for preparedness for the forthcoming regulatory changes and emphasised the significance of strengthening risk management practices. Shri Vaibhav Chaturvedi, CGM, RBI, explained the RBI guidelines relating to Expected Credit Loss (ECL) and the Standardised Approach for Credit Risk, outlining regulatory expectations and the broader supervisory context.
Shri Ajay Sirikonda, of E&Y, deliberated on the key imperatives and challenges in implementing the ECL framework, drawing attention to practical considerations and emerging issues faced by financial institutions. Shri Rajosik Banerjee, Partner, KPMG, covered credit risk under the Standardised Approach, including notable changes in the computation of capital charges and the application of various credit risk mitigation techniques.136 officers of banks attended the interactive conference. The program concluded with Shri Sankaranarayanan expressing appreciation to the speakers and participants for their valuable insights and constructive engagement.
CAFRAL organized a one-day Virtual Program on Risk Management for NBFCs on November 21, 2025. Shri Kamal P Patnaik, Senior Program Director, gave an overview of the risk management challenges in the NBFC sector and urged all the participants to make the best use of program by actively interacting with eminent speakers.
Shri Manas Mohanty, Additional Director, emphasised in his inaugural address the need for NBFCs to strengthen their governance and risk management frameworks in line with the sector’s growing scale and interconnectedness. He highlighted the importance of proactive risk identification, robust compliance, and strong customer protection mechanisms. He noted that institutions investing in operational and cyber resilience will be better equipped to navigate emerging risks and ensure sustainable growth.
The program discussed key systemic challenges facing the NBFC sector, with a focus on aligning risk and compliance practices with supervisory expectations. It also deliberated on liquidity risks emerging from the growing interconnectedness between NBFCs, banks, and mutual funds, and examined frameworks for co-lending arrangements along with related risk assessment and mitigation strategies. The sessions further explored ways to strengthen operational resilience through effective cyber risk management, while also emphasizing the need to embed a strong risk culture, supported by a robust governance framework, across business verticals. The program concluded with discussions on building a sound compliance eco-system, highlighting the importance of KYC/AML practices and internal controls in enhancing institutional preparedness and operational resilience.
The program concluded with a heartfelt thanks from Shri C Sankaranarayanan, Senior Program Director, reiterating the significance of understanding the evolving risk landscape for NBFCs and the institutional capabilities required to navigate it effectively.
CAFRAL conducted a virtual program on IT Governance, Risks, Controls & Assurance on Nov 12, 2025.
Shri Manas Mohanty, Additional Director, CAFRAL, commenced the program with a warm welcome and delivered the inaugural address. He highlighted the growing significance of robust IT governance frameworks and effective risk management mechanisms in an increasingly digitalised financial ecosystem.
The program provided a comprehensive overview of emerging trends, supervisory expectations, and best practices in IT governance, risk management, and assurance functions across the financial sector. Discussions emphasized effective management of technology lifecycle risks, including obsolescence, vulnerability exposure, and change control, to ensure system stability and resilience. The sessions also highlighted the importance of data-driven approaches in assessing cyber security posture through the use of metrics, automation, and analytics. Participants explored strategies for enhancing oversight and resilience across third-party ecosystems, recognizing the critical role of vendor risk management in maintaining operational continuity. The evolving role of information systems audit was discussed, particularly the shift from traditional, point-in-time reviews to continuous assurance mechanisms that support operational resilience, observability, and incident response.
The program concluded with a heartfelt thanks from Shri Kamal P Patnaik, Senior Program Director, CAFRAL who expressed his gratitude to all the speakers and participants from banks and NBFCs for their active engagement and valuable contribution to the program.
CAFRAL conducted a two-day program on Compliance and Risk for Senior Officers of Banks, FIs and NBFCs, on November 10-11, 2025. Shri C. Sankaranarayanan, Senior Program Director, CAFRAL presented the program overview, providing clarity on the agenda.
Shri Manas Ranjan Mohanty commenced the program with a warm welcome to all participants and delivered the inaugural address. The program discussed the evolving landscape of compliance and risk, highlighting the balancing act between adherence and operational agility. Deliberations covered emerging trends in governance, risk and compliance frameworks, with emphasis on strengthening organisational resilience. The sessions further examined key aspects of risk-based supervision and compliance assessment, alongside an in-depth exploration of the changing cyber security threat landscape, incident reporting mechanisms and crime prevention measures for financial intermediaries. The program also addressed financial crime risk and compliance, as well as issues relating to accountability and enforcement in the regulatory ecosystem. Additionally, discussions centred on the supervisory perspective of cyber security within the GRC framework, operational and compliance issues in third-party risk management, and approaches to consumer protection with regard to customer complaints and grievance handling. The program additionally focused on the significance of internal audit in supporting the compliance function and concluded with critical insights into data localization, protection and privacy, outlining the challenges and considerations for regulated entities.
The program concluded with thanks from Shri C. Sankaranarayanan, Senior Program Director who expressed his gratitude to all speakers and participants for their robust participation and the diverse viewpoints that enriched the overall discourse.
CAFRAL organized a one-day Program on Operational Risk Management for Senior Officials of Banks, FIs & NBFCs on October 16, 2025. Shri Kamal P Patnaik, Senior Program Director provided a brief overview on highlighting the growing significance of operational resilience in a rapidly evolving risk environment. Shri Manas Mohanty, Additional Director in his inaugural address discussed the increasing complexity of operational risks and the need for institutions to build strong governance frameworks to address them.
Shri Baldev Prakash, DMD and Group Chief Risk Officer, State Bank of India, delivered the keynote address on the best practices in Operational Risk Management (ORM) for a Resilient Financial Sector. The program discussed a wide spectrum of themes central to strengthening operational resilience across financial institutions. Key deliberations covered best practices in ORM to enhance sectoral robustness, followed by insights into the evolving operational risk landscape and emerging regulatory expectations. The importance of effective cyber risk identification, detection, and preventive mechanisms was also deliberated upon, highlighting the growing need for vigilance in an increasingly digital environment. The program further examined third-party and outsourcing risks in the context of the DPDP Act 2023, with a focus on prevention and mitigation strategies. Discussions also explored robust approaches to operational risk measurement and mitigation to support institutional resilience. The program concluded with an in-depth discussion on implementing best practices in Business Continuity Management to ensure preparedness and continuity across financial institutions.
The program concluded with a heartfelt thanks from Shri Kamal P. Patnaik, Senior Program Director, who expressed his gratitude to all speakers and participants for their active engagement and thoughtful contributions. He highlighted that the insights shared during the sessions would enable institutions to strengthen their operational resilience and adopt more forward-looking risk-management practices.